ITEM:		CONSENT CALENDAR
11.	ACCEPT METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING FUTURE WATER NEEDS
Meeting Date:			August 16, 2004		Budgeted:	N/A
From:			David A. Berger,		Program/	N/A
			General Manager		Line Item No.:
Prepared By:			Stephanie Pintar		Cost Estimate:	N/A
General Counsel Approval:				N/A
Committee Recommendation:				The Water Demand Committee reviewed this item on August 10, 2004 and recommended approval by a 2-1 vote.
CEQA Compliance:				N/A

SUMMARY: On March 15, 2004, the Board of Directors discussed near-term water supply projects. The Board has also indicated its strong desire to achieve a long-term water supply project. Both projects require input from the jurisdictions regarding water needs and a formula for allocating new water. In its action on March 15, the Board requested the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) and Policy Advisory Committee (PAC) make recommendations to the Board on what formula should be used to determine each jurisdiction’s share of any new allocation. The Board also asked if there should be an MPWMD Community Reserve, and if the Federal Government should be added as new jurisdiction. The first of these requests, a methodology for long-term water needs, has been completed.

The Technical Advisory Committee’s recommendation on the methodology to determine long-term water needs is to use the jurisdiction’s current General Plan build-out numbers and apply the District’s factors to determine the maximum future water needs. There was discussion by the TAC about including a trend analysis in the calculation to more accurately account for permit activity, but the TAC, with direction from the PAC, did not choose to include that methodology. A joint TAC/PAC meeting was held on June 1, 2004 to share the proposed recommendation with the PAC, and the governing bodies of the jurisdictions then reviewed the issue. On August 3, 2004, the TAC met for a final time, after having received feedback from their governing body. The final recommendation is the result of that meeting.

RECOMMENDATION: By adopting this item with the Consent Calendar, the Board is accepting the proposed TAC recommendation to use General Plan build-out to calculate long-term water needs. Using this methodology may involve significant staff time and may result in some delay in presenting the numbers due to a current staffing shortage in the Water Demand Division. Staff will apply its factors to the build-out calculations prepared by each jurisdiction before presenting the calculations to the Water Demand Committee and to the Board of Directors. Having District staff complete the calculations, rather than having each jurisdiction provide the calculations, will reduce the likelihood of disagreement on the numbers.

IMPACT ON STAFF AND RESOURCES: The level of staff effort required to complete the calculations on the long-term water needs is unknown at this time.

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